What will happen under Harris or Trump?

Talk is cheap — here's what the betting markets say

Will inflation in 2025 be below 2.5%?

Currently 2.4%, per Bureau of Labor Statistics

+38%
chance if Harris
$1196 traded210 traders

Will undocumented immigration go down?

2025 vs 2024 southwest land border encounters, per US CBP

+18%
chance if Trump
$532 traded227 traders

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

30 days with <100 Russian soldier fatalities before Nov 2026, per Ukraine Ministry of Defence

+18%
chance if Trump
$1082 traded352 traders

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon?

US monthly average (currently $3.26), per Energy Information Administration

+6%
chance if Trump
$442 traded122 traders

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Per St. Louis Fed's Sahm rule recession indicator

+12%
chance if Trump
$798 traded161 traders

Will there be major federal policy on AI?

Executive order or legislation passed before Nov 2026

+11%
chance if Harris
$447 traded127 traders

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made with 🇺🇸 by Nate Foss and Austin Chen