What will happen under Harris or Trump?

Talk is cheap — here's what the betting markets say

Will inflation in 2025 be below 2.5%?

Currently 2.4%, per Bureau of Labor Statistics

+55%
chance if Harris
$1369 traded251 traders

Will undocumented immigration go down?

2025 vs 2024 southwest land border encounters, per US CBP

+19%
chance if Trump
$711 traded228 traders

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

30 days with <100 Russian soldier fatalities before Nov 2026, per Ukraine Ministry of Defence

+17%
chance if Trump
$1164 traded375 traders

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon?

US monthly average (currently $3.26), per Energy Information Administration

+13%
chance if Trump
$639 traded162 traders

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Per St. Louis Fed's Sahm rule recession indicator

+16%
chance if Trump
$855 traded172 traders

Will there be major federal policy on AI?

Executive order or legislation passed before Nov 2026

+5%
chance if Harris
$511 traded131 traders

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made with 🇺🇸 by Nate Foss and Austin Chen