What will happen under Harris or Trump?

Talk is cheap — here's what the betting markets say

Will inflation in 2025 be below 2.5%?

Currently 2.4%, per Bureau of Labor Statistics

+19%

chance if Harris

$721 traded132 traders

Will undocumented immigration go down?

2025 vs 2024 southwest land border encounters, per US CBP

+14%

chance if Trump

$390 traded200 traders

Will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine?

30 days with <100 Russian soldier fatalities before Nov 2026, per Ukraine Ministry of Defence

+8%

chance if Trump

$480 traded198 traders

Will gas prices stay under $4 a gallon?

US monthly average (currently $3.26), per Energy Information Administration

+3%

chance if Trump

$93 traded68 traders

Will the US enter a recession before 2027?

Per St. Louis Fed's Sahm rule recession indicator

+3%

chance if Harris

$649 traded131 traders

Will there be major federal policy on AI?

Executive order or legislation passed before Nov 2026

+20%

chance if Harris

$110 traded86 traders

How accurate are prediction markets? Better than most pundits.
Either they're right, or you can make money betting against them.
Learn more here, or see caveats here.

made with 🇺🇸 by Nate Foss and Austin Chen